Penalty Shootout Probability Calculator
Choose the same per-kick scoring probability for both teams and a fixed number of kicks each.
A QUICK WALKTHROUGH
How to use this tool
- Enter a per-kick scoring probability from 0 to 100%.
- Enter 1–50 kicks per team.
- Compare the chance of a higher score, lower score, or tie after those kicks.
Model
Each kick is an independent success/failure with the same probability for both teams. The tool compares two binomial scores after exactly n kicks each.
Scope
This is a fixed-kick score comparison. It does not model alternating order, early termination, goalkeeper choices, sudden death, or a real competition format.
GOOD TO KNOW
Common questions
Does this predict the winner of a real shootout?
No. Real shootouts have ordering and stopping rules that this simplified model omits.
Are both teams assigned the same probability?
Yes. The model uses one user-entered scoring probability for every kick.
Are inputs uploaded?
No. Calculation happens locally in your browser.